If Accumulation is Rising, Why is BTC Still Falling?

While accumulation is slowly returning and distribution by weak hands has eased, it's not yet strong enough to overpower the ongoing profit-taking pressure from long-term holders.

These older holders, sitting on significant gains, are realizing profits, creating a supply overhang that caps upward momentum — at least for now.

Until demand from new buyers or conviction accumulators significantly outweighs this sell-side pressure, Bitcoin may remain under short-term bearish pressure despite underlying bullish signals.

CKB analysis:

The price is currently trading within a downtrend channel and is reacting to the established support and resistance levels. It has tested the lower support line, and we may see a movement toward the resistance line in the coming days. Consider opening a long position near the support area, but be sure to set a tight stop loss.

Support Area: $0.003780-$0.003850

Bitcoin has shown a V-shaped recovery, covering all previous losses. With the weekend approaching, we may experience sideways movement until Monday. The key support level is $103,000, and the price needs to remain above this level.

RPL has been rejected from the resistance area; therefore, we recommend booking profits. You can consider opening long positions again if the price tests the support area.

Support Area: $4.55-$4.90

Resistance Area: $6.85-$7.30

AVAX has broken the uptrend channel and is now reclaiming the trendline. The recent decline is due to the movement of BTC, and we may see a move towards the resistance area in the coming days.

Resistance Area: $26.00-$27.00

📊 Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Watch

As BTC trades near its all-time highs, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis becomes a critical on-chain indicator to watch.

* 📍 Current STH Cost Basis: $97.1K
* ✅ +1σ (Bullish Breakout Zone): $114.8K
* ⚠️ –1σ (Bearish Breakdown Zone): $83.2K

This range is acting as a volatility compression zone. A decisive break above $114.8K could ignite a fresh rally, while a drop below $83.2K might signal a deeper correction ahead.

📉 This is the calm before the storm — stay alert for the next major move.

TIA analysis:

Price has broken the support area and retested it. There is a downtrend line acting as a resistance area. This is a no-trading zone, and we will open new positions only if the price is able to break above the downtrend line.

Resistance Area: $2.05-$2.08

Bitcoin is currently moving sideways as anticipated. The volume is low due to the weekend, and we may see some volatility on Monday.

BABY has continued its downward movement, dropping more than 22% after the retest. The price is now forming a support level, and we may see a bounce from this point. You can consider accumulating some BABY in the support area.

Support Area: $0.059-$0.060

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📊 Bitcoin Profit Distribution — Long-Term Holders Dominate

According to Glassnode, long-term holders (holding BTC for over a year) accounted for the majority of realized profits:

💰 $1.47 Billion in daily profits came from long-term holders
🔁 Short-term holders only saw $0.32 Billion in daily profits

🔎 This shows the strength and patience of long-term conviction — they’re the real winners during bullish phases.

GALA analysis:

We recommend placing your buy orders in the support area, as the price is currently testing a major support zone. The uptrend line has been broken, and the price is now undergoing accumulation.

Major Support Area: $0.01360-$0.01730

Resistance Area: $0.02450-$0.02550

Bitcoin has once again tested the resistance area and was rejected from it. That was likely the weekend pump, and let's see if BTC can continue its upward movement today. We may witness some volatility in the market when the US market opens.

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Bitcoin Dominance is forming a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which is a positive signal for altcoins. A rising wedge is typically a bearish pattern that often breaks downward. We could see a significant rally in altcoins once the rising wedge breaks.

📈 Ethereum Spot ETFs Record 4th Consecutive Week of Inflows

Ethereum spot ETFs have added +97.8K $ETH this week, marking the 4th straight week of net inflows.

🔹 Total holdings: 3.77M $ETH
🔹 Still ~41K ETH below the February peak of 3.81M
🔹 Accumulation trend remains steady, showing renewed investor interest

While recovery is underway, there’s still room for upside before retesting previous highs. Watch closely as institutional confidence slowly rebuilds in the ETH market.